While various people and cultures around the world have been employed in a few form of betting for a lot more than 3000 years, the point spread, or ‘betting point’, is really a relatively new invention and has just been used for the higher section of 70 years. Its effect in this relatively short period of time is plain and as an un-named bookie quoted in a 1951 book by sports journalist Charles Rosen put it: The spread has simply been ‘the greatest development since the Zipper.’ Without problem, it has had a huge part to play in the present recognition of one game in particular–the game of American baseball.
While most truly an American invention, the actual source of the idea spread is dark. Some experts believe it was presented in the 1920’s while the others claim it was not popular until the 1930’s in the Brand New York area. Irrespective of its actual birth-date, that much is known–In the years following second world war, the idea spread became the dominant type of wagering for both American baseball and baseball. It was a bookies dream, rendering the underdog much more beautiful and assuring sports books and bookies a gain on the ‘vigorish’ shaved off the utmost effective of winning bets.
Originally set in the early days by a company out of Minneapolis run by Leo Hirschfield, spreads are now more of a consensus begun by executives from activities publications inside Vegas’ casino’s, along with overseas organizations. For the purposes of my study, I have relied on the lines supplied by the Don Best Sports Information Service, an opinion of about 25 sportsbooks (17 foreign and 8 Nevada).
In most of games, the purpose spread is initially occur the hope that wagers can fall rather evenly on both contestants. Often the bookies will misread public opinion and you may see an a few point move around in the point spread from early in the week before close of betting action. In other circumstances, the bookmakers will intentionally set a skewed line in an attempt to mug the general public in to taking predominately one side–a group that these in the ‘know’ will steer clear of. While this might seem to be a situation for the sport books to take, having 80-90% of action on a single side where the point value greatly favours the bookmaker is a good situation for sports books (and specific bookies) to stay over the long-haul.
While the Internet age has certainly helped to sharpen the betting skills of the average bettor by providing a good amount of higher level handicapping info, a big portion of players can nevertheless be classified as ‘squares’–meaning, they will wager on the well-known favorites week after week, no real matter what the conditions. It is this band of novice and intermediate bettors that Vegas and the off shore books can prey on over the course of each year. Evidence of this is found in the fact that over the past 14 years, a strategy of betting all favourites has turned a profit in just 2 various years (1998 and 2005) and since 1994, favourites are a depressing 1543-1652 (48.3%) contrary to the number.
Contrarian betting methods have often worked well in the NFL and by using companies that track where square money is flowing each week, sharper bettors could put themselves capable to ‘cash-in’ on sucker lines and play against the majority. This is just a technique that works in many years (1998 and 2005 apart), but, this sort of information doesn’t come cheapservices that analyze and provide choice percentage information may charge anywhere from $100-$600 US monthly.
An alternative solution to this is to make use of the Net to have ‘stay’ NFL lines which could provide an indication of where the money is flowing on any particular game. A line that is adjusted downwards is often a reaction to a bigger amount of money coming in on the underdog while a that creeps up, is an indicator that the favourite is receiving more of the action. By examining the timing and size of these moves, I have been in a position to develop an overall total of 8 different betting techniques which are an easy task to implement using free line data on the Web.
All of these situations use whilst the starting point the line submitted Wednesday evening at 6pm but any steady line stated between Wednesday and Friday evening (for Sunday and Monday games) must work quite as well.
Wagers are involved by the first group of situations on favourites while the 2nd addresses great opportunities on the underdog. Profits shown are based on 10/11 chances with a $110 bet to get straight back $100 on each game.
Fav Situation #1: Favourites that escalation in the last hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 100-83 ATS (+$870) 15-21 ATS in ‘july.
(Closing point used for grading).
Hour was posted 1 by a late increase in the line from the value before game time indicates an excellent play on the favourite. This situation experienced in ’06 as favourites generally took a beating general, however it has still shown a significant profit over the past 6 years.
Fav Situation #2: Favourites which are at least 1 point larger @ 1/2 hour before GT than they certainly were on Wednesday morning.
Report since 2001: 107-85 ATS (+$1,350) 16-18 ATS in ‘may.
(Line 1/2 time before GT used for grading).
Favourites that rise between Wednesday night and a hour before game time have been very successful, with the exception of last season. The line should increase by at least 1 whole place for this condition to be effective.
Fav Situation #3: Favourites of exactly 3 points on Wednesday that increase to at least 3.5 points @ 1/2 time before GT.
Record since 2001: 26-20 ATS (+$400) 5-9 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
Field-goal advances are generally maybe not susceptible to fluctuations; but, when it will happen, the favorite is a significant bet so long as the shift is an increase. This case also took a beating in ‘july, but, it should be in-line for a jump in 2007.
Fav Situation #4: Favourites of just 7 points on Wednesday that increase to at the least 7.5 points @ 1/2 time before GT.
Record since 2001: 15-8 ATS (+$620) 3-1 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 time before GT used for grading).
As with field-goal spread beliefs, teams favoured by a level TD @ mid-week don’t generally move off this range, but, when the line increases, the favorite has been an excellent guess in the past 6 seasons–including 2006.
Earnings from line movements are not restricted to favourites alone. There’s also 4 different techniques readily available for the ones that want to place their money on your Dog.
Puppy Situation #1: Underdogs that decrease in size throughout the final time before GT.
Report since 2001: 109-80 ATS (+$2,100) 11-9 ATS in ‘may.
(Closing line used for grading).
Develops that fall from the worthiness submitted 1 hour ahead of game time signify an excellent play on the underdog. This case is a consistent winner since 2001 and it may occur as much as 40 times per season.
Dog Situation #2: Underdogs of 7 or 7.5 points on Wednesday morning that are a bigger underdog 1/2 time before GT.
Report since 2001: 25-14 ATS (+$960) 4-1 ATS in ‘july.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT useful for grading).
This case doesn’t occur too often but it’s extremely lucrative, when it does. This tactic involves actions of merely a 1/2 point, such as a shift from 7 to 7.5, or, 7.5 to 8.0.
Dog Situation #3: Underdogs which can be at the least 2 1/2 points smaller @ 1/2 time before GT than they were Wednesday night.
Record since 2001: 20-13 ATS (+$570) 6-3 ATS in ‘july.
(Line 1/2 time before GT employed for grading).
Underdogs in this case are typically small puppies of 1-2 points that really swing up to a small favorite as game time approaches. Inspite of the reduction in point importance, they still remain a very good choice to cover.
Puppy Situation #4: Big underdogs of > = 12 points on Wednesday that have fallen in proportions @ 1/2 hour just before GT.
Record since 2001: 13-9 ATS (+$310) 5-3 ATS in ‘may.
(Line 1/2 time before GT useful for grading).
This example has seen limited motion since 2001, but, it has shown some promise and I will be watching its results closely in 2007.
The lesson to be learned from these circumstances is that: line moves–late kinds especially–offer a not at all hard (and free) solution to turn each season to a profit. The driving force behind these actions could be the results of the betting activities of a comparatively few ‘high-rollers’ with inside information, or, possibly the responses of several smaller bettors setting last-minute bets centered on late-breaking injury changes and changing weather conditions. Whatever the supply, no reasonable handicapper are able to afford to ignore the benefits why these important changes might have on the bets.
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