What gets lost in all the eye directed to how well groups rush and pa…
There is little doubt that rushing and driving numbers would be the main tool of preference for handicappers trying to assess staff energy and the reliability of the point spread for any given game. My research is not any different in a few respects–many of my systems rely on basic reviews such as for instance ROF and PDE that use yards-per-play stats to show conditions that have already been worthwhile versus the line.
What gets lost in most the attention directed to how well groups run and pass the ball; however, is the proven fact that you will find other equally important elements of team play which may be just as predictive in character as some of the more commonly used measurements of team skill.
One statistics that is involved by such area frequently flies under the radar of handicappers linked to staff penalties and certain forms of penalties can be an especially effective handicapping instrument in the right conditions, even as we will explore here.
I’ve always found fines to be an intriguing part of the NFL game and their effect is undeniable–who hasn’t felt the sting of a mistimed charge that suddenly breathes new life into a drive that was over just moments before with a spread victory all but sown up. Inconvenient penalties can cost a game to an in the flash of an eye and change a spread winner into a loss faster than T.O. May autograph a ball (in the long run zone needless to say).
I’ve actually monitored penalty yardage numbers since the 1994 season and penalty yardage differential (a average that takes penalties called on Opponents minus penalties called on the group in question) is the foundation for another successful system that is 78-14 ATS before 13 seasons.
While it is good to understand just how many yards of penalties a team earnings per game, or had in a previous game, this kind of research does not inform us something about what specific FORMS of penalties a team is being evaluated and the actual way in which the final punishment yardage total shown in the box score was arrived at.
Is the team under consideration having a lot of unpleasant keeping calls due to a not enough size on the line? Or, are they getting hit with a variety of pass interference calls because of a second-string CB forced in to duty as a result of a personal injury? By splitting up charges in to more detailed categories and looking at them on the basis of the amount of calls, rather than yards, we could start to have better solutions for questions like those presented above.
Eventually, virtually every penalty called in the modern NFL game can be given to 1 of the next 6 categories:
1) False Start Penalties (FSP)
2) Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP)
3) Play Book Execution Penalties (PBEP)
4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)
5) Defensive Secondary Penalties (DSP)
6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)
The group that is the focus of the report could be the 3rd one listed: Play Book Execution Penalties. This group includes any misdemeanor associated with the break down of play calls. Types of these include: Illegal clusters, changes, motion, photographs, involvement, alternatives and procedures; Delay of game (using circumstances ); Illegal forward passes; 12 males on the field; Ineligible devices and therefore on. For a complete description on another groups, please consult page 11 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.
The group average for PBEP is usually around 0.7 calls per game (on each group). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP’s against with an average of 1.5 while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with an against average of 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.
As a stand-alone information, PBEP is a good yardstick for measuring the quality of a coaching staff and also has an clue if people are getting used in techniques where they’re comfortable and have the mandatory skills to succeed. While others, such as for example the Cardinals, rank nearby the bottom It’s number accident that teams like the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA average every year.
When it comes to handicapping versus the idea spread, PBEPA becomes a helpful tool when groups having an very high PBEPA are analyzed.
Since the 2002 season, teams with a PBEPA average significantly more than double the league average of 0.7 (> +1.4) certainly are a depressing 183-229 ATS (44.4%) contrary to the number. In only days gone by 5 conditions, placing bets based on this basic technique alone would have netted you a neat profit of $2,720 with a guess of $110 to win right back $100 on each game.
For those who like to have a lot of activity early in the summer season, this specific program is for you: a complete 49 games were required between Week 2 and 5 since ’02 and the ATS history in these cases: 7-42 ATS!
There’s really another ‘Foundation ‘, or, Primary condition that I prefer to utilize because of this situation and that is: to only include games where in actuality the opposition includes a greater Defensive Secondary Penalty Against Avg (DSPA). When this problem is included, the system’s history is paid down to 61-117 ATS (34.2%) and earnings previously 5 years jump to $4,990.
DSP fines contain banners thrown largely on Cornerbacks and Safeties, generally for Defensive Pass Interference and Illegal Contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS charges is something that needs further study on my part, but, suffice it to state that for whatever reasons, they are firmly intertwined and the drastic improvement that this situation results when only groups with a greater DSPA average are included is proof their connection.
Rounding out this system, are a number of Secondary conditions, all of which make sense given the situation of the conditions involved. Big Underdogs of > = 10 points are not a good play here and the same may be said of situations where the staff with a high PBEPA average is facing an coming off a Quarter Comeback in their last game and might be in place for a let-down. If these criteria are eliminated activities that meet either.
Groups coming off their Bye week are also reasonable contrary to the spread in this case (remember, this is really a program in the end), while they have presumably had a supplementary week to sort out a number of their problems.
Here are all the details.
(Notes: ASM represents Average Spread Margin and TDIS% may be the proportion of teams in the league which have been involved with this system previously or yet another. Retain the could be the percentage of teams which are.500 or better and SPR may be the Spread for teams in this situation.)
Program #22 Summary
Key Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Play Book Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average of > +1.4 Per Game.
2) Opponent features a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Average (DSPA).
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Dogs of > =10 Points.
2) Team perhaps not coming off a Bye Week.
3) Opponent perhaps not coming off a 4th Quarter Comeback.
4) Exclude Over/Under (OU) of Castor – ASR Wiki