While different civilizations and cultures around the world have been engaged in some form of betting for significantly more than 3000 years, the point spread, or ‘betting point’, is a relatively new creation and has only been being used for the better part of 70 years. Their influence in this relatively little while of time is simple and being an un-named bookie offered in a 1951 book by sports reporter Charles Rosen put it: The spread has easily been ‘the greatest discovery since the Zipper.’ Without problem, it’s had a massive part to play in the present popularity of one activity in particular–the game of American football.
While most truly an American invention, the actual origin of the idea spread is dark. Some authorities believe it was introduced in the 1920’s while others maintain it was not trusted before 1930’s in the Brand New York area. Regardless of its real birth-date, anywhere near this much is known–In the years after the 2nd world war, the point spread became the dominant kind of betting for both American football and basketball. It had been a bookies desire, rendering the underdog far more attractive and showing sports books and bookies a gain on the ‘vigorish’ shaved off the most effective of winning bets.
Originally set in the early days by a company out of Minneapolis run by Leo Hirschfield, spreads are now actually more of an opinion begun by managers from sports books inside Vegas’ casino’s, as well as foreign businesses. For the purposes of my study, I’ve relied on the lines given by the Don Best Sports Information Service, an agreement of roughly 25 sportsbooks (17 offshore and 8 Las Vegas).
For the majority of activities, the idea spread is initially emerge the hope that wagers will fall fairly evenly on both contestants. Sometimes the bookmakers will misread public opinion and you might see an a few point move in the point spread from early in the week before the close of betting activity. In other situations, the bookmakers will intentionally set a skewed line in an make an effort to sucker the general public in to taking mainly one side–a group that those in the ‘know’ will stay away from. While this may appear to be a position for the activity books to consider, having 80-90% of action using one side where the line value greatly favours the bookmaker is a great condition for sports books (and individual bookies) to be in within the long-haul.
While the Internet age has certainly helped to develop the betting skills of the average bettor by giving a good amount of advanced level handicapping info, a large percentage of bettors can still be classed as ‘squares’–meaning, they will wager on the well-known favorites week after week, no matter what the circumstances. It is this group of novice and intermediate gamblers that Vegas and the off shore books will feed on within the span of each season. Proof of this is shown in the proven fact that over the previous 14 years, a strategy of betting all favourites has turned a profit in only 2 different years (1998 and 2005) and since 1994, favourites really are a disappointing 1543-1652 (48.3%) contrary to the number.
Contrarian betting techniques have often worked well in the NFL and by using companies that track where square money is flowing each week, clearer bettors can put themselves in a position to ‘cash-in’ on fool lines and play from the majority. This is really a method that works generally in most years (1998 and 2005 away), but, this sort of information does not come cheapservices that evaluate and offer choice proportion information can charge anywhere from $100-$600 US monthly.
An alternative solution for this is to work with the Internet to obtain ‘live’ NFL lines which could offer an indication of where in actuality the money is going on any particular game. A point that is adjusted downwards is usually a reaction to a bigger amount of money arriving on the underdog while a that creeps up, is a sign that the favourite is getting more of the activity. By studying the timing and size of those techniques, I’ve been in a position to develop an overall total of 8 different gambling strategies which are easy to implement using free line information found on the Web.
Many of these situations use the line submitted Wednesday evening at 6pm while the starting place but any firm line listed between Wednesday and Friday evening (for Sunday and Monday activities) should work equally as well.
While the 2nd covers good chances on the underdog the first group of circumstances involves wagers on favourites. Profits shown are based on 10/11 odds with a $110 gamble to get right back $100 on each game.
Fav Situation #1: Favourites that upsurge in the last time before GT.
Report since 2001: 100-83 ATS (+$870) 15-21 ATS in ‘august.
(Closing line employed for grading).
Before game time indicates a good play on the favorite a late upsurge in the line from the price placed 1 hour. This situation suffered in ’06 as favourites usually took a beating total, however it has still shown a significant profit over the past 6 years.
Fav Situation #2: Favourites which can be at the very least 1 point greater @ 1/2 time before GT night than these were on Wednesday.
History since 2001: 107-85 ATS (+$1,350) 16-18 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT employed for grading).
Favourites that rise between Wednesday morning and a hour before game time have now been very profitable, except for last period. The point should increase by at the very least 1 whole point with this condition to work.
Fav Situation #3: Favourites of exactly 3 points on Wednesday that increase to at least 3.5 points @ 1/2 time before GT.
Record since 2001: 26-20 ATS (+$400) 5-9 ATS in ‘july.
(Line 1/2 time before GT employed for grading).
Field-goal advances are usually not prone to fluctuations; however, when it can happen, the favorite is a significant guess provided that the shift is an increase. This situation also took a beating in ’06, but, it should be in-line for a recovery in 2007.
Fav Situation #4: Favourites of just 7 points on Wednesday that increase to at the least 7.5 points @ 1/2 hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 15-8 ATS (+$620) 3-1 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
As with field-goal spread beliefs, teams preferred by an even TD @ mid-week don’t generally move off this number, but, when the line increases, the favorite has been an excellent guess before 6 seasons–including 2006.
Earnings from point movements are not restricted to favourites alone. There are also 4 different methods available for the ones that prefer to place their money on your Dog.
Puppy Situation #1: Underdogs that decrease in size during the final hour before GT.
Report since 2001: 109-80 ATS (+$2,100) 11-9 ATS in ‘august.
(Closing line used for grading).
Advances that fall from the value published 1 hour ahead of game time represent an excellent play on the underdog. This case has been a consistent winner since 2001 and it can occur as many as 40 times per season.
Dog Situation #2: Underdogs of 7 or 7.5 points on Wednesday night that are a bigger underdog 1/2 hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 25-14 ATS (+$960) 4-1 ATS in ‘july.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT employed for grading).
This situation doesn’t occur too often but it’s extremely profitable, when it does. This strategy includes movements of only a 1/2 point, such as a shift from 7 to 7.5, or, 7.5 to 8.0.
Dog Situation #3: Underdogs which are at the least 2 1/2 things smaller @ 1/2 time before GT than these were Wednesday night.
History since 2001: 20-13 ATS (+$570) 6-3 ATS in ‘july.
(Line 1/2 time before GT used for grading).
Underdogs in this situation are typically small dogs of 1-2 points that really move to a small favorite as game time approaches. Inspite of the large loss in point importance, they still remain a good bet to cover.
Puppy Situation #4: Big underdogs of > = 12 points on Wednesday which have fallen in proportions @ 1/2 hour prior to GT.
Record since 2001: 13-9 ATS (+$310) 5-3 ATS in ‘august.
(Line 1/2 time before GT employed for grading).
This example has seen limited motion since 2001, but, it has shown some promise and I will be watching its results directly in 2007.
The lesson to be learned from these circumstances is that: line moves–late types especially–offer an easy (and free) method to turn each year to a profit. The driving force behind these actions could be the results of the betting measures of a comparatively few ‘high-rollers’ with inside information, or, probably the reactions of several smaller players putting last-minute bets centered on late-breaking injury revisions and changing weather conditions. Regardless of the supply, no good handicapper can afford to ignore the benefits these important changes might have on the bets.
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